BRIEFING – State of AI Climate Impact 2026

November 11, 2026November 13, 2026 by Ketan Joshi In Uncategorized 1 Comment

In the midst of COP31, I’m happy to release a briefing that looks to summarise and lightly analyse the evidence we have around the current and expected climate impact of the modern AI industry: oversized, fossil-fuelled and suffering whiplash from the global cry of outrage at their environmental wrecking.

You can read the full briefing here (PDF)

And you can read an extract that focuses on Anthropic here (PDF)

All raw data and figures are here (folder)

AI is on track to become an industry that pollutes on par with other major industries

• The AI boom is already worsening greenhouse gas emissions; potentially emitting more across its lifecycle than all international aviation
• In the near term, an unchecked continuation of these trends pushes the AI industry into becoming a major global heavy-emitting industry dwarfing both international aviation and international shipping.
• If the AI boom continues unregulated, AI data centre growth would emit more just in the year 2035 than all expected avoided emissions from global EV deployment in the ten years prior to that.

Companies and countries are seeing AI data centre growth met by fossil fuel expansion

• Anthropic, soon to undergo the largest IPO in history, has one of the worst recent records on fossil fuels, with analysis showing its upcoming data centre projects could emit nearly 20 megatonnes of CO₂-e a year.
• Amazon, once regarded as a leader in renewable procurement, is seeking 64% fossil fuels for its new data centre projects.
• Analysis shows selected major US data centre projects are procuring 70% fossil fuels, 15% partly-fossil grid power and 15% renewable.
• The grid connection queue from the US has shifted from 26% fossil fuels (based on potential generation) in August 2024 to 51% fossil fuels in August 2026, with the tripling of proposed gas plants driven by data centre demand growth.
• Even in Europe, only a fifth of 2025 data centre consumption was covered by any sort of renewable power purchasing deal.

Anthropic highlights

Despite harbouring a reputation as one of the more responsible AI companies, Anthropic has shown a shockingly brazen level of support for fossil fuels and a total disregard for climate priorities. 

• Anthropic has never disclosed any energy, emissions or environmental data of any kind.

• In July 2025, Anthropic suggested the US government explicitly set a target for the construction of fossil gas power, promising to begin “preconstruction design work for natural gas plants” by the end of 2026.

• In May 2026, it was revealed that Anthropic is leasing capacity from the notoriously polluting SpaceX Memphis facility, itself a major source of local air pollution and climate pollution, and a project that has been strongly contested by affected locals; one analyst estimates (based on payments to SpaceX) that 1 in 2 Anthropic queries is served by this fossil-fuelled facility (one of the worst in the world).

• In a recently released set of “data centre community commitments”, Anthropic promises much of the new power generation to serve their data centres will be “natural gas, which can be brought online quickly, ramps up and down as demand changes, and is abundant in the places we’re considering for data centers”. They claim to be considering renewable energy but do not provide any details, and promise to invest in carbon removal to “help address emissions”. 

• In the S1 form filed by Anthropic, in advance of their Initial Public Offering (IPO), Anthropic suggests long term high emissions by declaring several fossil-fuel related risks, such as exposure to fossil fuel price volatility or competition with other customers for fossil gas. They also dismiss renewables as too high in cost (while ironically stating that “physical effects of climate change may increase our operating costs over time”). 

• In November 2026, Anthropic struck a USD $3.4bn deal with OnePWR, a fossil fuelled turbine manufacturer, for 1.7 gigawatts of generators, with the Financial Times stating that the transaction “is the largest known single purchase of power-generation equipment by an AI lab”. This transaction is more than three times the amount spent by xAI on its notoriously polluting Memphis turbines, and would emit approximately 6 MTCO2-e per year, equivalent to adding 1.8 million fossil-fuelled cars to the road.